All the data I have used is from digitallook.com. Analysts' forecast is the annualised dividend growth rate over the next 2 years. So if a share currently pays a 10p dividend and the forecast dividend for 2014 is 12.1p then the annualised dividend growth will be 10%pa. I've limited the growth rate to 15%, if a stock has an analyst growth rate higher than this, say 20% I have substituted 15% into the table below for the model. The reason for this is that high growth rates for large cap stocks are unsustainable in the long run.
The 3 year average yield is the total dividend paid over the last 3 years divided by 3 and then divided by the most recent share price.
I've omitted stocks with negative dividend growth forecasts (Eurasian, Kazakhmys, Man Group and Fresnillo), erratic dividends (BP), no dividends (Lloyds, RBS and Int Cons Airlines), or without 3 years track record of making dividend payments (GKN, Anglo American, ITV, Wolseley, Evraz, Carnival, Glencore, and Polymetal). That still leaves 84 stocks in the FTSE100.
As the stocks in the FTSE100 are large cap I have used a factor of 40% on the analyst growth rates for the model (for FTSE250 stocks I would use 33%).
I have used the adjustment factor which I outlined in a previous post, but have been conservative and not used any positive adjustment factors.
Share
|
Price
|
Analysts' forecast*
|
3yr average yield
|
Growth
|
Adjustment
|
Total
|
|||
1
|
Aviva
|
269
|
3.6%
|
9.4%
|
1.4%
|
0.0%
|
10.8%
|
||
2
|
Vodafone
|
174
|
15.0%
|
5.1%
|
6.0%
|
-0.4%
|
10.8%
|
||
3
|
RSA
|
101
|
3.1%
|
8.7%
|
1.2%
|
0.0%
|
9.9%
|
||
4
|
Standard Life
|
206
|
5.2%
|
6.3%
|
2.1%
|
0.0%
|
8.4%
|
||
5
|
L&G
|
111
|
11.7%
|
4.5%
|
4.7%
|
-1.0%
|
8.2%
|
||
6
|
Resolution
|
203
|
3.6%
|
6.7%
|
1.4%
|
0.0%
|
8.1%
|
||
7
|
BAE
|
272
|
3.3%
|
6.4%
|
1.3%
|
0.0%
|
7.7%
|
||
8
|
BT
|
207
|
14.6%
|
3.6%
|
5.8%
|
-2.0%
|
7.4%
|
||
9
|
SSE
|
1359
|
4.5%
|
5.5%
|
1.8%
|
0.0%
|
7.3%
|
||
10
|
ICAP
|
341
|
3.5%
|
5.8%
|
1.4%
|
0.0%
|
7.2%
|
||
11
|
Admiral
|
1116
|
15.0%
|
3.4%
|
6.0%
|
-2.4%
|
7.0%
|
||
12
|
AstraZenica
|
2632
|
2.0%
|
6.2%
|
0.8%
|
0.0%
|
7.0%
|
||
13
|
HSBC
|
514
|
7.7%
|
4.6%
|
3.1%
|
-0.9%
|
6.8%
|
||
14
|
National Grid
|
685
|
2.3%
|
5.6%
|
0.9%
|
0.0%
|
6.5%
|
||
15
|
Centrica
|
313
|
6.9%
|
4.5%
|
2.8%
|
-1.0%
|
6.3%
|
||
16
|
GlaxoSmithKline
|
1417
|
6.2%
|
4.6%
|
2.5%
|
-0.9%
|
6.2%
|
||
17
|
Aberdeen AM
|
240
|
15.0%
|
3.1%
|
6.0%
|
-2.9%
|
6.2%
|
||
18
|
M and S
|
348
|
5.6%
|
4.7%
|
2.2%
|
-0.8%
|
6.1%
|
||
19
|
British Land
|
495
|
2.7%
|
5.3%
|
1.1%
|
-0.2%
|
6.1%
|
||
20
|
RDShell 'B'
|
2081
|
2.7%
|
5.2%
|
1.1%
|
-0.3%
|
5.9%
|
||
21
|
Morrisons
|
273
|
11.7%
|
3.5%
|
4.7%
|
-2.3%
|
5.9%
|
||
22
|
Tesco
|
310
|
5.3%
|
4.5%
|
2.1%
|
-0.9%
|
5.7%
|
||
23
|
BATS
|
3050
|
9.7%
|
3.7%
|
3.9%
|
-1.9%
|
5.6%
|
||
24
|
Imperial Tobacco
|
2400
|
10.7%
|
3.5%
|
4.3%
|
-2.2%
|
5.5%
|
||
25
|
Sainsbury's
|
296
|
1.4%
|
5.1%
|
0.6%
|
-0.4%
|
5.3%
|
||
26
|
Reed Elsevier
|
488
|
5.6%
|
4.3%
|
2.3%
|
-1.3%
|
5.2%
|
||
27
|
Ashmore
|
326
|
6.0%
|
4.0%
|
2.4%
|
-1.5%
|
4.9%
|
||
28
|
United Utilities
|
649
|
1.0%
|
4.9%
|
0.4%
|
-0.5%
|
4.8%
|
||
29
|
BHP Billiton
|
1704
|
8.4%
|
3.4%
|
3.4%
|
-2.4%
|
4.3%
|
||
30
|
CRH
|
1129
|
2.4%
|
4.4%
|
0.9%
|
-1.1%
|
4.3%
|
||
31
|
Old Mutual
|
143
|
12.1%
|
2.8%
|
4.8%
|
-3.3%
|
4.3%
|
||
32
|
Vedanta
|
967
|
8.3%
|
3.4%
|
3.3%
|
-2.4%
|
4.2%
|
||
33
|
Rexam
|
393
|
10.8%
|
2.9%
|
4.3%
|
-3.1%
|
4.1%
|
||
34
|
Standard Chartered
|
1327
|
7.7%
|
3.4%
|
3.1%
|
-2.4%
|
4.1%
|
||
35
|
Capita
|
611
|
8.8%
|
3.2%
|
3.5%
|
-2.7%
|
4.0%
|
||
36
|
Barclays
|
182
|
12.8%
|
2.6%
|
5.1%
|
-3.7%
|
3.9%
|
||
37
|
Land Sec
|
711
|
3.7%
|
4.0%
|
1.5%
|
-1.6%
|
3.9%
|
||
38
|
Prudential
|
684
|
7.4%
|
3.4%
|
3.0%
|
-2.4%
|
3.9%
|
||
39
|
Unilever
|
2029
|
15.0%
|
2.2%
|
6.0%
|
-4.4%
|
3.8%
|
||
40
|
WPP
|
782
|
12.7%
|
2.5%
|
5.1%
|
-3.9%
|
3.6%
|
||
41
|
Sage
|
254
|
7.0%
|
3.3%
|
2.8%
|
-2.6%
|
3.5%
|
||
42
|
Amec
|
992
|
12.1%
|
2.5%
|
4.8%
|
-3.8%
|
3.5%
|
||
43
|
Pearson
|
1142
|
6.2%
|
3.4%
|
2.5%
|
-2.4%
|
3.5%
|
||
44
|
Hammerson
|
422
|
3.8%
|
3.8%
|
1.5%
|
-1.8%
|
3.5%
|
||
45
|
IMI
|
880
|
9.0%
|
2.9%
|
3.6%
|
-3.1%
|
3.4%
|
||
46
|
Schroders NV
|
995
|
4.9%
|
3.6%
|
1.9%
|
-2.1%
|
3.4%
|
||
47
|
G4S
|
276
|
9.3%
|
2.9%
|
3.7%
|
-3.2%
|
3.3%
|
||
48
|
Kingfisher
|
280
|
11.3%
|
2.5%
|
4.5%
|
-3.8%
|
3.3%
|
||
49
|
Smiths
|
1015
|
5.4%
|
3.4%
|
2.1%
|
-2.3%
|
3.2%
|
||
50
|
Next
|
2996
|
9.7%
|
2.7%
|
3.9%
|
-3.4%
|
3.2%
|
||
51
|
BSkyB
|
700
|
8.8%
|
2.9%
|
3.5%
|
-3.2%
|
3.2%
|
||
52
|
Tate & Lyle
|
670
|
5.0%
|
3.5%
|
2.0%
|
-2.3%
|
3.2%
|
||
53
|
Hargreaves Lansd
|
474
|
15.0%
|
2.0%
|
6.0%
|
-4.9%
|
3.1%
|
||
54
|
Severn Trent
|
1701
|
1.5%
|
4.0%
|
0.6%
|
-1.6%
|
3.1%
|
||
55
|
Compass
|
634
|
9.8%
|
2.6%
|
3.9%
|
-3.6%
|
2.9%
|
||
56
|
Diageo
|
1514
|
8.9%
|
2.5%
|
3.6%
|
-3.8%
|
2.3%
|
||
57
|
Rolls Royce
|
808
|
12.9%
|
2.0%
|
5.2%
|
-4.9%
|
2.2%
|
||
58
|
SABMiller
|
2394
|
11.8%
|
2.1%
|
4.7%
|
-4.6%
|
2.2%
|
||
59
|
Schroders
|
1194
|
4.9%
|
3.0%
|
1.9%
|
-3.0%
|
1.9%
|
||
60
|
Meggitt
|
378
|
8.1%
|
2.5%
|
3.3%
|
-3.9%
|
1.8%
|
||
61
|
Reckitt Benckiser
|
3433
|
2.4%
|
3.3%
|
1.0%
|
-2.5%
|
1.8%
|
||
62
|
Whitbread
|
1821
|
8.1%
|
2.4%
|
3.2%
|
-4.0%
|
1.7%
|
||
63
|
Johnson Matthey
|
2141
|
12.3%
|
1.9%
|
4.9%
|
-5.2%
|
1.7%
|
||
64
|
Petrofac
|
1577
|
12.0%
|
1.9%
|
4.8%
|
-5.3%
|
1.3%
|
||
65
|
ABF
|
1180
|
10.2%
|
2.0%
|
4.1%
|
-5.0%
|
1.0%
|
||
66
|
Burberry
|
1372
|
15.0%
|
1.4%
|
6.0%
|
-6.5%
|
0.9%
|
||
67
|
Bunzl
|
1006
|
6.5%
|
2.4%
|
2.6%
|
-4.1%
|
0.8%
|
||
68
|
Intercont Hotels
|
1412
|
7.3%
|
2.2%
|
2.9%
|
-4.5%
|
0.6%
|
||
69
|
Rio Tinto
|
2795
|
6.6%
|
2.3%
|
2.6%
|
-4.3%
|
0.6%
|
||
70
|
Wier Group
|
1552
|
11.0%
|
1.7%
|
4.4%
|
-5.6%
|
0.5%
|
||
71
|
Experian
|
903
|
9.0%
|
2.0%
|
3.6%
|
-5.0%
|
0.5%
|
||
72
|
Croda
|
2180
|
9.9%
|
1.7%
|
4.0%
|
-5.7%
|
0.0%
|
||
73
|
Intertek Group
|
2564
|
15.0%
|
1.1%
|
6.0%
|
-7.6%
|
-0.5%
|
||
74
|
Xstrata
|
913
|
8.1%
|
1.7%
|
3.2%
|
-5.7%
|
-0.8%
|
||
75
|
International Power
|
414
|
1.3%
|
2.4%
|
0.5%
|
-4.0%
|
-1.0%
|
||
76
|
Antofagasta
|
1017
|
15.0%
|
1.0%
|
6.0%
|
-8.4%
|
-1.5%
|
||
77
|
Serco
|
524
|
9.1%
|
1.4%
|
3.6%
|
-6.6%
|
-1.6%
|
||
78
|
Smith & Nephew
|
606
|
3.7%
|
1.7%
|
1.5%
|
-5.8%
|
-2.7%
|
||
79
|
Aggreko
|
2157
|
13.9%
|
0.8%
|
5.6%
|
-9.1%
|
-2.8%
|
||
80
|
BG Group
|
1266
|
7.5%
|
1.1%
|
3.0%
|
-7.8%
|
-3.7%
|
||
81
|
ARM
|
492
|
15.0%
|
0.6%
|
6.0%
|
-10.5%
|
-3.9%
|
||
82
|
Tullow
|
1395
|
15.0%
|
0.4%
|
6.0%
|
-12.7%
|
-6.3%
|
||
83
|
Randgold
|
5130
|
15.0%
|
0.3%
|
6.0%
|
-13.3%
|
-6.9%
|
||
84
|
Shire
|
1897
|
10.7%
|
0.4%
|
4.3%
|
-11.8%
|
-7.1%
|
||
See also: FTSE100: Individual stocks (Updated)
Useful list, Thanks
ReplyDeleteBig price fall for Shire (SHP) today, even at 1727p still get -6.5% expected return. Huge insider selling last week too. Director sold GBP2.25m shares on the 20th June.
ReplyDeleteAn interesting point:
ReplyDeleteIf you had invested in the FTSE100 on the 28th May it would now be up 2.07%
If you had bought the top 10 stocks on this list you would be up 2.82% (excluding dividends)
If you had bought the top 5 you would be up 4.20% (excluding dividends)
If you had bought the bottom 10 you would be up 0.66% (exc divs)
If you had bought the bottom 5 you would be up 0.53% (exc divs)
*Excluding divs is quite significant actually as the top 10 stocks on the list have an average div yield of 6.2%, in 1 month this could amount to 0.5% (6.2%/12)
The bottom 10 stocks have an aveage dividend of 1.0% (less than 0.1% a month)