Here is the top ten for the FTSE 100:
Stock
|
Price
|
Div
|
Total Return
|
Trend
|
Insider Dealings
|
RSA Insurance
|
109.40p
|
8.47%
|
9.41%
|
Down
|
-£810,946
|
ICAP
|
309.80p
|
7.10%
|
8.11%
|
Down
|
£29,212
|
BAE Systems
|
306.70p
|
6.27%
|
7.91%
|
Down
|
-£123,633
|
AstraZeneca
|
2,933.50p
|
6.25%
|
6.85%
|
Down
|
-£781,859
|
Morrisons
|
268.60p
|
4.02%
|
6.84%
|
Down
|
-£605,243
|
Legal &
General
|
129.30p
|
5.04%
|
6.58%
|
Up
|
-£1,971,370
|
WPP
|
797.00p
|
3.13%
|
6.40%
|
Up
|
£8,125
|
Tesco
|
313.10p
|
4.69%
|
6.30%
|
Down
|
-£5,583,677
|
Antofagasta
|
1,069.00p
|
1.25%
|
5.86%
|
Down
|
|
Old Mutual
|
156.30p
|
3.26%
|
5.81%
|
Up
|
-£3,264,202
|
I've ranked the stocks in order of total expected returns. I've also included the current trend based on 100 day high/low prices. The final column gives insider (director) net buying or selling of their stock in the last 12 months.
The media company WPP is the only stock in the list that has positive price action and no significant insider selling. Below is the recent price chart for WPP:
If we extend our search to include the FTSE 250 mid cap stocks the top ten looks like this:
Stock
|
Price
|
Div
|
Total Return
|
Trend
|
Insider Dealings
|
KCOM Group
|
73.65p
|
5.52%
|
11.52%
|
Down
|
£92,652
|
RSA Insurance
Group
|
109.40p
|
8.47%
|
9.41%
|
Down
|
-£810,946
|
Micro Focus
International
|
535.50p
|
3.83%
|
9.29%
|
Up
|
£263,821
|
Computacenter
|
305.40p
|
4.92%
|
8.85%
|
Down
|
-£708,974
|
Chemring Group
|
279.90p
|
5.32%
|
8.77%
|
Down
|
£21,242
|
WH Smith
|
549.00p
|
4.20%
|
8.69%
|
Down
|
-£4,555,100
|
ICAP
|
309.80p
|
7.10%
|
8.11%
|
Down
|
£29,212
|
BAE Systems
|
306.70p
|
6.27%
|
7.91%
|
Down
|
-£123,633
|
TUI Travel
|
167.80p
|
6.84%
|
7.91%
|
Down
|
-£2,702,211
|
Interserve
|
331.40p
|
5.69%
|
7.03%
|
Up
|
-£310,416
|
Here Micro Focus appears to be the most appealing at present:
At the bottom of the table we have these stocks:
Stock
|
Price
|
Div
|
Total Return
|
Trend
|
Insider Dealings
|
Tullow Oil
|
1,432.00p
|
0.84%
|
-11.68%
|
Up
|
£165,335
|
Fresnillo
|
1,449.00p
|
4.75%
|
-9.70%
|
Down
|
|
Derwent London
|
1,909.00p
|
1.66%
|
-8.43%
|
Up
|
-£2,372,728
|
Shaftesbury
|
534.00p
|
2.12%
|
-7.28%
|
Up
|
-£891,517
|
ARM Holdings
|
491.10p
|
0.72%
|
-7.09%
|
Down
|
-£10,378,451
|
Hansteen Holdings
|
71.05p
|
5.64%
|
-6.98%
|
Down
|
|
Genus
|
1,284.00p
|
1.04%
|
-5.73%
|
Up
|
-£2,238,852
|
Hays
|
67.10p
|
8.65%
|
-5.15%
|
Down
|
-£471,072
|
Dialight
|
1,000.00p
|
1.01%
|
-4.61%
|
Up
|
-£4,631,427
|
Rightmove
|
1,582.00p
|
1.16%
|
-4.16%
|
Up
|
-£18,721,728
|
A lot of the stocks that look overvalued have strong up trends (making them even more overvalued). Fresnillo and ARM are currently starting down trends after having very solid growth over the last few years.
These look overvalued by our model's valuation. I personally wouldn't short either of them but their high valuations, and in the case of ARM the high insider selling, make them unattractive to buy at these levels.
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