Current State of Play

Last month we looked at the "Current State of Play", here I have updated the list. The chart below gives the current state of play based on the expected returns of the investments below (ETFs) using our valuation method:





Most stocks remain well valued, particularly in Europe and the UK and some emerging markets. REITs appear to be well priced at the moment too if you look into more international markets.

Recent price falls in Oil have made it  more attractive investment but probably worth waiting a little longer to invest.

Gold and silver remain overvalued and returns on most bonds look low. US stocks (S&P500) look particularly overvalued.

The table below summarises the best current opportunities:

Class	Ticker	Expected Return	Price	Status	Target
EU Stocks	EUE.L	7.66%	1830	BUY	2818
Asia REITs	IASP.L	6.98%	1389	BUY	1833
BRIC Stocks	BRIC.L	6.40%	1549	BUY	1981
UK Stocks	ISF.L	6.06%	558	BUY	669
China Stocks	FXC.L	5.99%	6150	HOLD	7558
EM Stocks	IEEM.L	4.96%	2348	HOLD	2503
World REITs	IWDP.L	4.87%	1277	HOLD	1335

The status is either Buy, Hold or Sell. Buy is any opportunity with an expected return above 6%. Hold is 4.5%-5.99% and Sell is below 4.5%.

The price targets are the prices at which the fund would give an expected return of 4.5% making them a "Sell" status. The target will change over time with changing dividends and growth rates but will generally be increasing (if we assume dividends usually rise).